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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-25 16:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251447 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.5W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.5W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-25 10:42:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 3(17) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 X 10(10) 22(32) 5(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 105W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 3(25) X(25) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 5(22) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 1
2021-06-25 10:42:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 101.7W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the southwestern cost of Mexico later today. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Enrique. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will move parallel to, and offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Enrique is expected to become a hurricane during the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-25 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 101.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Remnants of Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-06-22 04:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220257 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Claudette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021 Recent scatterometer data show that the system has opened up into a northwest to southeast-oriented trough. Therefore Claudette has dissipated as a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The remnants of Claudette should continue to move rapidly east-northeastward and weaken over the next day or so. Additional information on the remnants of Claudette can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.0N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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