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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-06-28 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281451 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 kt just north of the well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as depicted by the global and regional models. There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina coast. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-06-28 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates. Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow Enrique to maintain its intensity longer. Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-06-28 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 281448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2021-06-28 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 281448 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 8(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 10(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 76 4(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLAS MARIAS 50 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 4 6(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281447 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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