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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 1
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 78.3W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of South Carolina from Edisto Beach northeastward to South Santee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should make landfall along coast of South Carolina in the warning area later this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected today, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall occurs. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The depression could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 14
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 281447 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 106.7W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the the southern Baja California Peninsula from Cabo San Lucas northward to Los Barriles. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 106.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected this afternoon with that motion expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, will begin to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico this afternoon. Enrique is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecasted over the next several days. Enrique is expected to weaken below hurricane intensity by tomorrow, but is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area this morning and tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today along the southwestern coast of Mexico and for the southeastern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-06-28 13:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 281141 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 600 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...ENRIQUE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE WARNING AREAS THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 106.6W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Enrique. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 106.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and that general motion should continue thereafter for the next couple of days. On the forecast track the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning. Enrique is forecast to begin weakening later today, and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-28 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280835 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past several hours. An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still characterized by fairly cold cloud tops. The current intensity for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a little less conducive environment. Faster weakening is likely to commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content, and entrainment of a more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction. Latest center fixes show that the hurricane's heading is beginning to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. A weak ridge that is forecast to develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. This general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is expected to move quite slowly for the next few days. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that area later today. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-06-28 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280835 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 6( 9) 8(17) 9(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 6( 9) 9(18) 11(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 81 8(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLAS MARIAS 50 12 16(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 64 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 4 11(15) 8(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAN BLAS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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