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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-06-27 16:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 271444 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 10 40(50) 14(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ISLAS MARIAS 50 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 3 5( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 14 12(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 105W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 42 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 34 32 5(37) 2(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-06-27 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 053 WTPZ25 KNHC 271443 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-06-27 13:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271141 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 600 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...ENRIQUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 105.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the north near 4 mph (6 km/h). A north-northwest to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late today through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is possible today. Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken over cooler waters on Monday and Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-27 10:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 113 WTPZ45 KNHC 270841 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja California peninsula, which should also contribute to the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU Superensemble predictions. Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should gradually bend to the left under the influence of the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too different from the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 9
2021-06-27 10:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...ENRIQUE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A north-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late today through Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is possible today, but Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken within the next couple of days as it moves over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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