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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-25 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 250831 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-25 10:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250831 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Sam continues to rapidly intensify. Geostationary satellite and microwave images show that the storm has a very small and distinct eye surrounded by a nearly symmetric ring of cold cloud tops. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 90 to 102 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. Although Sam is nearly a major hurricane, it remains quite compact with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to only extend 50 n mi and 15 n mi from the center, respectively. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt and is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. There has been little change to the track forecast philosophy or model guidance. Sam is expected to continue west-northwestward during the next two or three days, but it is forecast to move at a notably slower pace of 6-8 kt during most of that time period. After that time, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a deep-layer trough becomes established over the western Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause Sam to turn northwestward and speed up some by the middle of next week. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Based on this forecast, and nearly all of the reliable guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. Continued steady or rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane remains in near ideal conditions of very low wind shear and warm 29 deg C waters. However, beyond that time the shear is expected to increase a little, and that will likely cause Sam to level off in strength or weaken slightly next week. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the models in the short term, given the impressive structure of the hurricane and favorable conditions, but falls in line with the consensus aids at the longer lead times. Regardless of how strong Sam gets, nearly all of the models indicate that it will remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 12.8N 46.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 13.1N 48.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 49.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 14.0N 50.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 15.4N 52.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 18.0N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.1N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-25 04:42:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250242 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Teresa's cloud pattern is not well organized, even for a subtropical cyclone. The main convective band is rather ragged in appearance, and situated 100 n mi or more to the east and northeast of the exposed low-level center. The current intensity estimate, 40 kt, is in general agreement with the latest subtropical satellite classification from TAFB, but given the disheveled appearance of the system, this may be generous. Teresa has recently been moving more westward than northward, on the northern side of a mid-level cyclonic circulation, and the current motion estimate is an uncertain 300/9 kt. During the next day or so, the cyclone is likely to turn northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough that will be moving over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one, but along the same general trajectory. The HCCA model consensus is somewhat faster than the NHC prediction. The cyclone has been situated under an upper-level low which has kept the vertical shear fairly low thus far. However, as this low moves away from the area, Teresa will begin to experience increasing west-southwesterly shear, and no strengthening is expected. In 48 hours or so, based on the global models, the storm is forecast to become absorbed by the aforementioned trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 34.3N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Teresa Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...TERESA LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 65.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Teresa was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 65.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north and northeast is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Teresa should dissipate in about two days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250241 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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