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Subtropical Storm Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 250241 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-25 04:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 444 WTNT43 KNHC 250234 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Sam developed a 10-n mi wide eye in infrared satellite images a few hours ago, surrounded by a ring of cloud tops as cold as about -70 degrees Celsius. The core of the hurricane remains compact. In fact, recent Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is only about 6 n mi. Dvorak estimates were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB at 0000 UTC, and given the additional clearing of the eye since then, Sam's intensity is raised to 85 kt. Sam has been moving toward the west-northwest during the past 6 to 12 hours with a motion of 285/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same, and the model guidance is packed more tightly than normal through day 5. A blocking ridge lying to the north and northwest is expected to cause Sam to slow down over the weekend and maintain a motion toward the west or west-northwest. On days 3 through 5, the ridge is expected to shift eastward, with a deep-layer trough developing over the western Atlantic. This should allow Sam to turn northwestward toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has not budged much and remains close to the TVCA consensus aid. Based on this forecast, and nearly all of the reliable guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. Deep-layer shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for the next day or two, and Sam will be heading toward waters of higher oceanic heat content. These conditions favor continued strengthening, and the hurricane is forecast to become a major hurricane on Saturday and possibly reach a peak intensity in 2 to 3 days. For this period, the NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid and is near the high end of the guidance envelope. As is usually the case with hurricanes this small and strong, fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles will be possible. On days 3 through 5, some increase in shear as Sam approaches the deep-layer western Atlantic trough is possible, and modest weakening is shown at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 12.4N 45.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 12.7N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 13.1N 48.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 13.5N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 14.1N 51.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 14.8N 52.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 15.7N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 17.4N 55.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 19.5N 58.8W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-09-25 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 250234 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-25 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 45.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 45.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.7N 47.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.1N 48.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.1N 51.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.8N 52.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.4N 55.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-24 22:57:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242057 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Sam's structure on satellite has improved this afternoon, with overshooting cloud tops rotating quickly around the small central dense overcast, providing the appearance that the hurricane is mixing out the dry air that affected its core structure this morning. In fact, the last few visible satellite images suggest that a small eye is clearing out within the cirrus canopy. Interestingly, a recent 1930 UTC SSMIS pass suggests concentric bands are also forming in Sam's core structure and it remains to be seen how that structure will affect the wind field evolution of the hurricane. The latest subjective Dvorak intensities estimates form TAFB and SAB were a consensus T4.5/75 kt, while the latest SATCON and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have also increased this afternoon. The current advisory intensity has been set to 75-kt. Given the recent trends on satellite, this may be conservative. The motion of Sam has remained on the same heading, though the storm is beginning to slow down with the estimate now at 280/10 kt. An additional slowdown in forward motion is anticipated in the short-term as the mid-level ridging shuffles to the northwest of the tropical cyclone, impeding its forward motion. However, after 72 hours, this same ridge is expected to shift back to the northeast of Sam as a deep-layer trough off the Eastern United States coastline becomes established. Track guidance spread increases towards the end of the forecast, with the ECMWF and GFS remaining at odds, with the former on the equatorward side, and the latter on the poleward side of the track envelope. The consensus aids, however, have changed little from the previous advisory and the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one. Now that Sam appears to have mixed out the dry air seen this morning, intensification, likely rapid, is resuming. The only fly in the ointment is the current concentric banding structure on microwave imagery, which hints at the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle. Assuming the smaller eye will not collapse in the short term, rapid intensification appears likely over the next 12-24 hours and the intensity has been raised in the short term, taking Sam to major hurricane intensity by tomorrow. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a slightly higher peak at 120-kt in 48 hours followed by very gradual decay, due to a subtle increase in vertical wind shear, potentially some upwelling effects due to the slow forward notion, and eyewall replacement cycles that could lead to a broadening of the wind field. The latest NHC intensity forecast starts out on the high side of the intensity guidance but ends up very close to the HCCA consensus aid by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of the details, Sam is expected to be a significant hurricane through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 12.1N 44.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 12.7N 48.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 13.1N 49.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.5N 50.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 14.3N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 15.1N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 16.9N 55.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.1W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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