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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-09-29 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 175 WTNT23 KNHC 291445 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 50.8W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 50.8W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 50.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.8N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.3N 52.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-09-29 16:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 128 FONT13 KNHC 291445 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-29 10:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 08:34:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 09:22:04 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-29 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 753 WTNT43 KNHC 290832 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 The deep convection has become more concentrated near the center during the past several hours indicating that Leslie is gradually acquiring some tropical characteristics, but the cyclone is still too attached to a complex deep-layer low. On this basis, Leslie is still considered a subtropical storm in this advisory with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Global models indicate that the subtropical cyclone will continue to be embedded within strong northerly shear during the next 2 days or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax and with a warm ocean along the cyclone's path, Leslie is forecast to become fully tropical and reach hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. SHIPS model and its derivatives strengthen Leslie significantly, but the NHC forecast is a little less aggressive, and it follows the intensity consensus. Leslie has been moving toward the southwest or 230 degrees at 6 kt, steered by the flow around the western side of the large deep-layer low in which Leslie is embedded. Since this steering pattern is not expected to change, Leslie will probably continue on the same general track for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the large low weakens and the cyclone will become steered slowly northward by the flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. Nevertheless, Leslie is forecast to meander over the north-central Atlantic for several more days. This is the solution provided by most of the global models, and the NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus aids and the corrected consensus HCCA. Large swells previously generated by Leslie when it was a stronger extratropical low have already reached Bermuda, and will soon reach the Lesser and Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States by Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 35.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 33.5N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 33.2N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 02/0600Z 32.3N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-29 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 751 FONT13 KNHC 290832 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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