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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-09-30 10:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 034 FONT13 KNHC 300852 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-30 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 30 the center of Leslie was located near 33.8, -52.5 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 16
2018-09-30 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 420 WTNT33 KNHC 300852 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 52.5W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 52.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow southwestward or south-southwestward motion is forecast for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next day or two. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-09-30 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 421 WTNT23 KNHC 300852 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 52.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 52.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.4N 53.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.9N 54.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.7N 54.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 32.4N 54.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 35.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 52.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-30 04:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 200 WTNT43 KNHC 300243 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 The structure of Leslie consists of a large, broken outer band wrapped around the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with little convection west of the center. ASCAT data recently showed 40-45 kt within that band, so the maximum winds will stay at 45 kt. The storm should gradually move over somewhat warmer waters within a lighter shear environment during the next few days. Thus gradual intensification is shown, similar to the model consensus. The only notable change to the previous forecast is to move up the peak intensity close to Leslie's southernmost position before it stalls. It would seem that after that time, the relatively large system would be moving close to its previous track over its self-generated cooler upwelled waters, and weaken somewhat at long range. Leslie continues to move southwestward, and its initial motion is 235/5 kt. This storm should move slowly to the southwest through Sunday, then creep southward by late Monday due to steering partially by northerly flow from a distant ridge over the western Atlantic and a nearby large mid- to upper-level trough. Eventually, a new ridge rebuilds over the east-central Atlantic east of Leslie, which causes the cyclone to move to the north at a faster pace by day 5. As you could imagine in such a complex pattern, the models aren't in good agreement on how quickly the storm ejects, and this is a pretty uncertain forecast at long range. Until some forecast scenarios become clear, the forecast will stay close to the corrected-consensus aids, resulting in mostly cosmetic changes to the last forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 33.9N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 33.4N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 33.0N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 32.6N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 32.2N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 31.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 31.7N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 34.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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