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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-08-15 16:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 151452 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) APALACHICOLA 34 6 33(39) 7(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) APALACHICOLA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 17 33(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 38(42) 19(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 13(13) 36(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 20(20) 13(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 6( 6) 33(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 6( 6) 31(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 51(56) 6(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 24
2021-08-15 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...FRED AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 84.9W ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.9 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is expected to weaken quickly after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-08-15 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151451 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/ JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO NAVARRE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ALABAMA TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 84.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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fred
Tropical Storm Fred Update Statement
2021-08-15 14:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT61 KNHC 151241 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/ 10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory. SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-15 14:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:40 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 25.9, -84.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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