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Remnants of Fred Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-14 16:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141450 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A combination of shear caused by an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and land interaction has caused Fred to degenerate into an open wave. Surface observations from Cuba do not show a closed circulation, and satellite imagery shows at least two vorticity centers embedded in a large trough. The strongest convection is currently near and southeast of a vorticity center near the Isle of Youth. The initial position is a mean position between the vorticity center, and the initial intensity of 30 kt is based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data to the northeast of the estimated center position. The global models forecast the upper-level trough to move northward and weaken during the next 24 h and indicate that Fred will re-form a closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning. Given the strength of the upper-level trough, that forecast may well be too bullish. However, given the agreement in the guidance, the revised intensity forecast will call for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status at about the 24 h point, followed by gradual strengthening in a less than ideal upper-level wind environment until landfall along the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, the system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h. The initial motion is a very uncertain 300/10. The system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north as the system nears the northern Gulf coast in 60-72 h. While the forecast guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, there is uncertainty as to where the center of Fred will be when it re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which could change quite a bit during the next 24-36 h. Although all coastal watches and warnings are discontinued at this time, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development and the potential need for watches and warnings on the northern Gulf coast later in the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area later in the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 23.3N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE 12H 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE 24H 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-08-14 16:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 141450 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF FRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 2(24) X(24) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) X(26) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 8(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Remnants of Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-14 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 the center of Fred was located near 23.3, -83.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 20
2021-08-14 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 83.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of this area later in the weekend. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred or its remnants are expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected after the system re-develops. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls today across the Florida keys and the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon through tonight across portions of west-central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-08-14 16:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141448 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W...DISTURBANCE FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W...DISTURBANCE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 83.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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