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Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 22

2021-08-15 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area early Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today... Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches. From Sunday night into Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. From Tuesday onward... Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Sunday night over parts of the western Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Remnants of Fred Forecast Discussion Number 22

2021-08-15 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150248 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Deep convection has increased in association with the remnants of Fred this evening with some lose banding noted in both satellite imagery and radar data from Key West. Satellite imagery and surface observations also indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined since this afternoon, but the system still lacks a well-defined center. Therefore, the system has not regained tropical cyclone status yet. The initial intensity remains 30 kt and is based on a few buoy and C-MAN observations over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Florida Keys which have reported peak winds of 25-30 kt over the past several hours. The C-MAN site on Sand Key has reported slightly stronger winds, but that site is elevated. The system has moved little during the past several hours, and since it lacks a well-defined center, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 300/08 kt. The disturbance is expected to begin a more definitive northwestward motion overnight or Sunday morning as it moves around the western extent of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on the overall motion scenario, there is some cross-track spread that appears to be related to where the center re-forms in the short term. Overall there was some eastward shift to the guidance envelope and the official forecast was nudged in that direction, but it still lies to the west of the consensus aids. The NHC track forecast is closest to the GFEX track, which is a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to weaken and move northward during the next 12-24 hours. This should allow for a somewhat more conducive environment for the system to regain tropical cyclone status and strengthen on Sunday. However, continued moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to hinder significant development, and the NHC intensity forecast only calls for gradual strengthening through 36-48 hours. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the circulation will dissipate by 96 hours. Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches are very likely to be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.8N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 25.3N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 28.3N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 29.7N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 31.4N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 33.1N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Remnants of Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2021-08-15 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 150248 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF FRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 7( 7) 36(43) 8(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 22

2021-08-15 04:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150248 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 84.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.3N 85.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 86.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.3N 87.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.1N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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