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Remnants of Fred Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-14 22:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 040 WTNT41 KNHC 142039 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of the elongated center. However, neither the circulation nor the convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a tropical cyclone at this time. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this evening to see how far the re-development has progressed. The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11. The system is expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60 h. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur depending on where the center of Fred re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which could change quite a bit during the next day or so. The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the next 24 h. They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning. Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind environment. After landfall, the system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.0N 84.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE 12H 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Remnants of Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 the center of Fred was located near 24.0, -84.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142037 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.1W...DISTURBANCE FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 84.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142037 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 84.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected after the system re-develops. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today... Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches. From Sunday night into Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. From Tuesday onward... Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through Sunday over parts of the western Florida peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 142037 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF FRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 15(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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