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Tropical Depression KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-10-06 10:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 060831 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 15 20 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 74 59 51 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 20 26 28 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-10-06 10:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060831 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
discussion
karen
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-06 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of KAREN was located near 28.3, -91.7 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
karen
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression KAREN Public Advisory Number 13
2013-10-06 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 ...KAREN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 91.7W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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public
advisory
karen
Tropical Depression KAREN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-10-06 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 91.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 91.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 91.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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advisory
karen
tropical
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