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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 11
2013-10-05 22:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052042 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 CORRECTED FOR DEFINITION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ...KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-10-05 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 052036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 6 13 23 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 30 40 47 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 69 52 39 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 34 X 29(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BURAS LA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-05 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of KAREN was located near 28.1, -91.7 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-05 19:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN STALLS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of KAREN was located near 27.9, -91.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 10A
2013-10-05 19:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 051754 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 100 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 ...KAREN STALLS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 91.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. KAREN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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