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Tropical Storm KAREN Graphics
2013-10-05 17:09:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2013 14:33:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2013 15:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-10-05 16:49:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2013 14:49:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-05 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051432 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON SEVERAL SFMR WINDS AROUND 35 KT FROM THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT MISSIONS IN KAREN EARLY THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSIONS INTO KAREN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DETERMINE IF THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS BETWEEN A 30-KT DEPRESSION AND A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD EASILY OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE BANDS. KAREN SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. KAREN HAS BEEN MOVED QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS TO THE LEFT AND AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 355/07...AS KAREN HAS NOW TURNED NORTHWARD. A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC TRACK...WHICH NOW TAKES THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THEN ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INLAND. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH KAREN...TAKES A WEAKER SYSTEM ALMOST DUE EASTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST NOW THAT KAREN IS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...SINCE THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL HAVE LESS BEARING ON WHERE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 27.9N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 28.7N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 29.4N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 07/1200Z 31.3N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-10-05 16:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 051432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 16 25 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 31 42 48 43 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 68 49 35 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 34 2 7( 9) 12(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 5 14(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 8 15(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 19 23(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BURAS LA 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 8 10(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) JACKSON MS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 22 15(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 12 6(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW IBERIA LA 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-05 16:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of KAREN was located near 27.9, -91.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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