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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-11 22:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 20:39:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 20:38:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-11 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.1, -100.3 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-06-11 22:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 112037 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 100.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N 100.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 100.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 101.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.7N 102.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 100.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-11 17:07:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 14:42:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-06-11 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111440 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 The organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased, with a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way around the system's center. The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt based upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with consideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently a bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer winds overnight. Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third tropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific. Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three days. At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge. However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude substantial intensification. Given that Carlos' track now is projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect the system. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly lower than that from the previous advisory. Carlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. Shortly, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering pattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the next couple of days. In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge will become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it northwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed, paralleling the southwestern Mexican coast. The official track prediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and is just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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