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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2015-06-13 04:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 2(20) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 19(25) 8(33) 1(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 19(27) 6(33) 1(34) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 18(35) 12(47) 1(48) X(48) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 6( 7) 17(24) 14(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 5 15(20) 10(30) 4(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 5 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-13 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.8, -100.1 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 10

2015-06-13 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ...CARLOS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 100.1W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 100.1 West. Carlos is currently drifting toward the northeast. A drift toward the north or northwest is expected later tonight and Saturday, and a slow motion toward the west-northwest is expected Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 10

2015-06-13 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 100.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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