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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-12 19:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 17:32:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 15:03:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-12 19:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAINBANDS FROM CARLOS BRUSHING SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.7, -100.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 8A
2015-06-12 19:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121731 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ...RAINBANDS FROM CARLOS BRUSHING SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 100.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 100.7 West. Carlos is currently stationary, and only a slow movement to the northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-12 16:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 14:39:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 14:39:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-06-12 16:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos continues to be affected by northeasterly shear with the center on the north side of the convection. While an overnight microwave pass showed some increase in organization of the inner core, radar from Acapulco and the latest satellite images suggest that the system has become less organized since then. Dvorak estimates are about the same as six hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 50 kt. The storm is essentially stationary, caught in an area of light steering between a distant mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico. Little net motion is expected until late this weekend, when the ridge builds over Mexico. This pattern change should cause Carlos to move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the southwestern United States is forecast to dig into northwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the northwest by Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through three days, and then is adjusted a bit to the east to reflect the latest consensus guidance. The intensity forecast is tricky because there are a lot of competing factors. During the next day or two, the northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a gradual intensification of Carlos is anticipated. Thereafter, although the shear is expected to become light, warm upper-level temperatures and drier air in the mid-levels could keep Carlos from significantly strengthening. By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to weaken Carlos. The latest intensity guidance has come down from the last cycle, which makes some sense given the limiting factors above. The official NHC wind speed prediction is reduced from the previous one, although it remains on the high side of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 14.9N 100.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.9N 102.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.7N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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