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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-06-13 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 131454 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 1(22) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 22(34) 4(38) X(38) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 22(37) 3(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 2 9(11) 28(39) 15(54) 6(60) X(60) X(60) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 21(23) 24(47) 6(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 9 22(31) 7(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) ACAPULCO 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P MALDONADO 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-06-13 16:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131453 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.2W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.2W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-13 13:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 11:57:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-13 13:56:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.8, -100.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 11A
2015-06-13 13:56:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131156 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...CARLOS A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 100.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is currently stationary but is expected to move slowly northwestward later today. A slight increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and Carlos could become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Sunday. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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