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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-13 01:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF CARLOS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.7, -100.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 9A
2015-06-13 01:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122334 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ...CENTER OF CARLOS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 100.3W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located by Mexican radar data and satellite imagery near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos is currently drifting erratically, and only a slow movement to the west-northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-12 22:44:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 20:44:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 20:34:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-06-12 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122034 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos looks a little better organized this afternoon with the center now fully embedded within a more symmetric and deeper central dense overcast. Microwave images show some evidence of inner core features, but they remain fragmented. Since Dvorak estimates are unchanged, the initial intensity will remain 50 kt, but this could be a bit conservative based on recent trends. The storm continues to be stationary within an area of light steering between a mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build over central Mexico on Sunday, which should then cause Carlos to move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the southwestern United States should move into northwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the northwest by Tuesday. Model guidance remains in relatively good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one. The intensity forecast continues to be challenging. During the next day or so, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a slight intensification of Carlos is anticipated. Thereafter, although the shear is expected to become light, a combination of warm upper-level temperatures, drier air aloft, and possible land interaction could help keep Carlos from strengthening significantly. By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to weaken Carlos. Although most of the intensity guidance no longer calls for Carlos to become a hurricane, this guidance has had a noted low bias this season, and the GFS still shows quite a bit of intensificaton. Thus, I am inclined to stay at the upper edge of the guidance, and near the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 14.7N 100.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.2N 100.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.3N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 22.0N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-12 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWESTWARD... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.7, -100.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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