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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-12 13:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STATIONARY SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.7, -100.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 7A
2015-06-12 13:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121134 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ...CARLOS STATIONARY SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 100.8W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 100.8 West. Carlos is currently stationary, and only a slow movement to the northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos are expected to increase near the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-12 11:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 08:54:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-06-12 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120852 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos has changed little in strength during the last several hours. Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate that the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were unchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt. Northeasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist for another day or two, so only gradual intensification is predicted. Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when Carlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea surface temperatures. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance. The tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering currents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the past 6 hours or so. The steering currents are expected to remain weak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue to meander during that time. Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is expected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward speed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track parallel to the coast of Mexico. The model guidance has changed little this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is also close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-12 10:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.7, -100.8 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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