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Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2019-10-13 10:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 130831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)

2019-10-13 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MELISSA WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 13 the center of Melissa was located near 39.3, -62.6 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 8

2019-10-13 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130830 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 ...MELISSA WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 62.6W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 62.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). An increase in forward speed and a turn to the east are expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast today around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 8

2019-10-13 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130830 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 62.6W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 62.6W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 40.2N 59.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 41.1N 55.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 42.0N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 42.3N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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