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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-10-14 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140244 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
2019-10-13 22:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 20:41:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 20:41:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-10-13 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 132040 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 After an earlier flare-up of convection, thunderstorm activity has decreased significantly in both coverage and intensity during the past 4 hours. Convection is now limited to a small area in the northeastern quadrant, and the inner-core region is becoming dominated by stable cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on 1400Z ASCAT wind data showing 35-36 kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle and subsequent erosion of the convective pattern. Melissa continues to gradually accelerate east-northeastward and the initial motion estimate is now 075/16 kt. An additional increase in forward speed, in conjunction with a turn toward the east, is expected by tonight and then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near an average of the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. The unfavorable combination of westerly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt and SSTs less than 24 deg C is expected to continue the current weakening trend, with Melissa becoming a remnant low by Monday morning. The cyclone is forecast to merge or interact with a larger extratropical low by Wednesday and dissipate. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 39.9N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 40.5N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/1800Z 41.4N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 41.9N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 41.7N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
2019-10-13 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 13 the center of Melissa was located near 39.9, -58.8 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 10
2019-10-13 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 132040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 ...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 58.8W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 58.8 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A further increase in forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches) is based on reports from a nearby NOAA drifting buoy. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast today around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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