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Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 9
2019-10-13 16:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131432 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 ...MELISSA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.8N 60.9W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 60.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. An increase in forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast today around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-10-13 16:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 131432 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-10-13 16:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 131431 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 60.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 60.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.5N 57.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.4N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.9N 47.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.8N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N 60.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
2019-10-13 10:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 08:33:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 08:33:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-10-13 10:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130831 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 Satellite images indicate that Melissa has lost organization overnight. Deep convection separated from the low-level center a little before 0000 UTC, and now its convection is confined to a new area about 50 n mi north and northeast of the center. This degraded appearance in the cyclone's structure is due to about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. An ASCAT pass from around 0200 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range, but since the convective pattern has degraded since then, the initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt. This estimate is also near an average of the Dvorak FT and CI numbers from TAFB. The westerly shear is expected to increase even more during the next couple of days. These hostile winds aloft combined with the continued influence of dry and stable air should cause continued weakening, and Melissa is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, when it is forecast to be over SSTs below 22 C. The global models show the remnants of Melissa becoming absorbed or merging with a front in 2 to 3 days. Melissa has moved a little to the north of the previous track, with the initial motion now estimated to be 065/12 kt. The steering pattern is expected to become more zonal during the next couple of days, which should cause Melissa to move generally eastward at increasing forward speeds before it is absorbed within the frontal zone. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one to account for the initial motion and position. This forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 39.3N 62.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 40.2N 59.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 41.1N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1800Z 42.0N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z 42.3N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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