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Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
2019-10-12 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 20:35:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 20:35:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-10-12 22:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122034 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 Convection has continued to persist near the center of Melissa throughout the day, and only in the past few hours have the affects of increasing westerly shear begun to erode the convection from the western side of the cyclone. A pair of scatterometer passes late this morning showed that the wind field associated with the storm had contracted, with the strongest winds occurring within 50 n mi of the center. They also revealed that the radius of maximum winds had decreased to 20 n mi. Based on these data along with a tropical structure apparent in satellite and microwave data, it is likely that Melissa completed a transition to a tropical cyclone at some point this morning. A recent Dvorak classification from TAFB, an objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT, and an earlier scatterometer pass all support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. The westerly shear beginning to affect Melissa is expected to gradually increase over the next few days. Through tonight, the cyclone will move over waters of 23-24 C. In addition, the upper trough over the storm that has aided in maintaining its convection will weaken and lift northeast of the cyclone over the next day or so. The combination of these factors should cause Melissa to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. The global model intensity forecasts appear to be capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the northeast of Melissa and not directly associated with the cyclone itself. Thus, the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and continues to be lower than the global model guidance. Melissa is moving east-northeastward, or 070/10 kt. The increasing westerly flow will cause the cyclone to gradually accelerate through Monday. This motion will continue, with a slight turn to the east in a few days, just before the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the middle of the various consensus aids. Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Key Messages: 1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 38.4N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 39.8N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 40.7N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 41.6N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 42.4N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-10-12 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 122033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
2019-10-12 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA MAKES A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 12 the center of Melissa was located near 38.4, -65.6 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 6
2019-10-12 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 ...MELISSA MAKES A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 65.6W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast at near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed through Monday. On the forecast track, Melissa will continue to move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast through the rest of the weekend around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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