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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 16A

2017-10-08 13:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081152 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 ...NATE RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 88.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Alabama/Florida border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 88.0 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken as it moves farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (150 km) primarily southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was reported at Destin, Florida within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). Water levels of around 3.0 to 3.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) have recently been reported by National Ocean Service gauges at Pensacola, Florida, and Mobile Bay, Alabama. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area for the next couple of hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Nate Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2017-10-08 12:00:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2017 10:00:25 GMT

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Tropical Storm Nate Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-10-08 11:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2017 09:54:09 GMT

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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 16

2017-10-08 11:15:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080914 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 Corrected Storm Surge breakpoint in Hazards section ...NATE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 88.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Metropolitan New Orleans, and Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of Pearl River eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.4 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken as it moves farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Mobile airport recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft North of Pointe a la Hache to the mouth of the Pearl River...4 to 6 ft. Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to Pointe a la Hache...1 to 3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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