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Hurricane Nate Forecast Advisory Number 13

2017-10-07 16:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 071454 TCMAT1 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAKE MAUREPAS * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAKE MAUREPAS * EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 88.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 88.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 88.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Nate (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-07 13:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT NATE IS A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 the center of Nate was located near 25.7, -88.0 with movement NNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Nate Public Advisory Number 12A

2017-10-07 13:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071140 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT NATE IS A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 88.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general fast motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast on Sunday morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico today and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning later today over parts of the central Gulf Coast region. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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