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Summary for Hurricane Nate (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-07 19:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF NATE MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 the center of Nate was located near 27.6, -88.9 with movement NNW at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Nate Public Advisory Number 13A

2017-10-07 19:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071737 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF NATE MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 88.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.9 West. Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the north is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will approach the mouth of the Mississippi during the next several hours and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf Coast tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nate is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale when the center reaches the Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km), primarily to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning in the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible beginning late this afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Nate Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2017-10-07 17:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 07 Oct 2017 15:33:45 GMT

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Hurricane Nate Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-10-07 17:20:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 07 Oct 2017 15:20:16 GMT

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Hurricane Nate Forecast Discussion Number 13

2017-10-07 17:04:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 071504 CCA TCDAT1 Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 Corrected 24 kt motion to 23 kt motion in third paragraph Nate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this morning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure near 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under the overcast. The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of up to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument between 75-85 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 80 kt. Conditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for the next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear. The new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing Nate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves through the eastern United States. The cyclone is now forecast to become extratropical near the 72 hr point and dissipate completely by 96 h. The initial motion is toward the north-northwest at a very rapid 23 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. In addition, a mid-latitude trough in the westerlies is moving eastward through the central United States. This pattern is expected to cause Nate to turn northward during the next 12-18 h as it rounds the western end of the ridge, followed by a turn toward the northeast as it enters the westerlies. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm surge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast. Residents in these areas should immediately heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials. 2. Nate is forecast to reach Category 2 intensity before landfall. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, with the strongest winds expected to occur primarily to the east of the center. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these areas, as tropical storm conditions will first arrive in the warning area this afternoon. 3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring tropical- storm-force winds well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Georgia. 4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas. 5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 26.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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