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Tropical Depression Nate Public Advisory Number 18
2017-10-08 22:47:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2017
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Tropical Depression Nate Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-10-08 16:50:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 081450 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Nate Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 The center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward over central Alabama. Moderate westerly shear has caused most of the deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east and northeast of the center, and surface observations show that Nate has continued to rapidly weaken. Wind gusts to tropical-storm strength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt tropical depression. Nate is expected to become a remnant low on Monday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by frontal system. The intensity foreast keeps the wind speed around 30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase along the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on Monday when the post-tropical low approaches that area. Nate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 to 36 hours. The cyclone is forecast to turn east-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal system. This is the last NHC advisory on Nate. Heavy rainfall associated with Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the southern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the next day or so. Future information on Nate system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will continue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas. 2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations. 3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon. 4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products issues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 33.1N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nate (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-08 16:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 the center of Nate was located near 33.1, -87.3 with movement NNE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nate Public Advisory Number 17
2017-10-08 16:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 87.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern Georgia into the western Carolinas. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nate Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-10-08 16:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 081448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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