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Hurricane Nate Public Advisory Number 15
2017-10-08 04:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...NATE'S NORTHERN EYEWALL MOVING ONSHORE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 89.1W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River and for Lake Pontchartrain. The Hurricane Warning from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/ Walton County Line has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar just offshore of the Mississippi coast near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 89.1 West. Nate is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will make landfall on the Mississippi coast within the next hour or two. After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to move across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Nate is expected to weaken quickly after landfall, and it is likely to become a tropical storm Sunday morning. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). A water level of 4.4 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Shell Beach, Louisiana. The gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 3.3 ft MHHW. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area through Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Pearl River...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...1 to 3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: additional 1 to 2 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi through Sunday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Nate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-10-08 04:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 080251 PWSAT1 HURRICANE NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 7 74(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 21 23(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) WHITING FLD FL 34 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PENSACOLA FL 34 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MOBILE AL 64 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) STENNIS MS 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Nate Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-10-08 04:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080251 TCMAT1 HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/ WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * LAKE MAUREPAS * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 89.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 89.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 89.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.3N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.1N 73.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 89.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Nate (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-08 01:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 the center of Nate was located near 29.0, -89.2 with movement N at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Nate Public Advisory Number 14A
2017-10-08 01:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 072352 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 89.2W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for Lake Maurepas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Nate is now making landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River, near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.2 West. Nate is now moving toward the north and a little slower, near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, followed by a motion toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will make a second landfall along the coast of Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night. Aircraft reconnaissance data and Doppler radar velocity data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening now appears unlikely before Nate's center reaches the Mississippi coast during the next few hours. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Nate becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) were recently reported by NOAA buoy 42040 to the east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). A water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Pilots Station East, Southwest Pass, Louisiana. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi through Sunday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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