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Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Advisory Number 5

2017-10-05 16:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051446 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z...INLAND AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 85.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 86.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 88.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.5N 89.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 41.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 83.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Nate Graphics

2017-10-05 13:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 11:43:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 09:25:37 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nate (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-05 13:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NATE NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Nate was located near 13.9, -83.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 4A

2017-10-05 13:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NATE NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 83.4W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today as the center of Nate moves across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). Puerto Cabezas recently reported a pressure of 1001 mb (29.56 inches) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Read Nate McCoy's story

2017-09-18 21:44:04| PortlandOnline

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