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Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Discussion Number 7

2017-10-06 04:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060251 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 Nate's center has been moving northwestward across eastern Honduras, but it is just about to reach the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Despite moving over land for the past 12-15 hours, the cyclone appears to have a relatively intact and well-defined inner core. Deep convection has actually been increasing over the center, and recent 85-GHz microwave data showed at least some form of a convective ring. Given these signs, the maximum winds are being held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Nate during the next several hours to get a better handle on the storm's intensity and structure. Nate has been moving northwestward while crossing Nicaragua and Honduras, and the initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt. The storm is currently embedded within a broad Central American gyre, and it should swing north-northwestward on the east side of this gyre during the next 36 hours. After 36 hours, Nate should turn northward and then northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric high centered off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Compared to yesterday at this time, the track models have come into much better agreement, and all the reliable models take Nate's center across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula in 24 hours and then across the U.S. central Gulf coast between 48 and 60 hours. Because of this tight clustering, there are no notable cross-track changes in the NHC forecast. Speed-wise, however, the updated official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has caught up to the various consensus aids. Due to low shear and very high oceanic heat content in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate should at least steadily strengthen once it moves offshore, especially since it appears to have a well-defined inner core. Rapid intensification is still not out of the question, and Nate could be near hurricane intensity by the time it reaches the Yucatan coast in about 24 hours. Land interaction with the Yucatan peninsula could cause a brief hiatus in the strengthening trend, but conditions should be conducive for additional intensification while Nate is over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the intensity models have not changed much on this cycle, and the NHC forecast still calls for a 48-hour intensity of 70 kt, which is at the upper end of the guidance between HWRF and HCCA. As mentioned before, Nate could strengthen further in the time between the 48-hour position and when it crosses the U.S. Gulf coast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through Friday night. 2. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. 3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, have been issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 15.8N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/1200Z 17.8N 85.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 07/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z 24.3N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 08/0000Z 27.5N 90.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 33.7N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 40.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 43.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nate (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-06 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NATE'S CENTER ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE U.S. GULF COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Nate was located near 15.8, -84.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 7

2017-10-06 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...NATE'S CENTER ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE U.S. GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 84.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located close to the coast of eastern Honduras near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected overnight, with Nate accelerating along that heading through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move offshore the eastern coast of Honduras during the next several hours, move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday, and reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula Friday evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through this weekend: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Honduras during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Advisory Number 7

2017-10-06 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060251 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0300 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA... EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA... EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS... LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY... LOUISIANA. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NICARAGUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 85.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 89.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.5N 90.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.7N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 40.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 84.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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