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Summary for Tropical Storm Nate (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-06 01:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NATE'S CENTER STILL OVER EASTERN HONDURAS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT... As of 8:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Nate was located near 15.3, -84.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 6A
2017-10-06 01:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 052332 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...NATE'S CENTER STILL OVER EASTERN HONDURAS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 84.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. A Hurricane Watch and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over eastern Honduras near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 84.5 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days with a significant increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will continue to move over eastern Honduras this evening and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is then expected to move near or over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands late Friday or Friday night, and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations into Saturday: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nate Graphics
2017-10-05 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 20:51:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 20:51:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-10-05 22:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 052045 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) X(23) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) X(25) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 3(33) X(33) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 3(37) X(37) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 25(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 2(48) X(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) 3(57) X(57) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 2(58) X(58) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 52(65) 1(66) X(66) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 36(69) 1(70) X(70) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 1(34) X(34) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) X(35) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 52(59) 1(60) X(60) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 40(63) 1(64) X(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 2(45) X(45) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 1(51) X(51) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 1(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38) X(38) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 34 X 16(16) 42(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANAJA 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-10-05 22:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052045 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 The center of Nate is now over eastern Honduras, and the cloud pattern has lost some organization since the last advisory due to passage over land. In addition, recent ASCAT overpasses suggest that there are no tropical-storm-force winds outside of the coastal waters of Nicaragua and Honduras. However, surface observations indicate that the central pressure remains near 1000 mb, and based on this the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Nate as it emerges from the northern coast of Honduras around 0300 UTC. Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that Nate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model. The large-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should diminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable environment for strengthening. One change in the models from the previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast shows little change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction, then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken as it traverses the eastern United States. It should be noted that while the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt. It should also be noted that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is now 330/9. A combination of a large cyclonic gyre over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 h or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the storm reaches the western end of the ridge. The guidance is in decent agreement on the direction of motion, but there remains disagreement on the speed despite a continued trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast track is similar to the direction of the previous track, but again shows a faster forward speed that now has the center near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in 24-36 h and near the northern Gulf Coast in 60-72 h. After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its remnants are expected to recurve northeastward upon encountering the mid-latitude westerlies. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through Friday night. 2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. 3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. A hurricane watch and storm surge watch will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.9N 84.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0600Z 16.5N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1800Z 19.2N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 22.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.6N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 38.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1800Z 41.5N 72.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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