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Summary for Tropical Storm Nate (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-05 22:45:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Nate was located near 14.9, -84.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 6

2017-10-05 22:45:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 052045 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 84.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. A Hurricane Watch and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days with a significant increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across eastern Honduras this evening and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is then expected to move near or over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands late Friday or Friday night, and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations into Saturday: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center of Nate makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Advisory Number 6

2017-10-05 22:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 052044 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 84.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 84.3W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 84.0W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 84.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.3N 87.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 89.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 38.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 41.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Nate Graphics

2017-10-05 19:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 17:41:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 15:25:56 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nate (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-05 19:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF NATE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Nate was located near 14.5, -84.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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