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Tropical Storm Nate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2017-10-06 16:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 061447 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) X(35) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 19(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 24(44) X(44) X(44) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 23(48) X(48) X(48) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 36(42) 21(63) X(63) X(63) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 25(25) 38(63) 5(68) X(68) X(68) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 29(29) 37(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 13(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 33(33) 44(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 39(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 34(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 34 X 3( 3) 61(64) 21(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 21(21) 25(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 14(14) 74(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 51(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 23(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 4( 4) 45(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 15(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 13(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 28 8(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 70 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) HAVANA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Advisory Number 9

2017-10-06 16:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061447 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...AND FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVENCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVENCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * PINAR DEL RIO * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * ISLE OF YOUTH A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 85.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 85.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 86.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.8N 88.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.1N 89.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.1N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 37.5N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 42.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 85.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm Nate (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-06 13:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NATE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 the center of Nate was located near 17.8, -84.8 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 8A

2017-10-06 13:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061142 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NATE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 84.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general track with a marked increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula early this evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through this weekend: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the warning area in Honduras during the next few hours, but gradually subside. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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