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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 5A
2017-10-05 19:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051739 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 84.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon or tonight, with that motion continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras this afternoon and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today while the center is over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-10-05 16:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051447 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 The cloud pattern associated with Tropical Depression Sixteen increased in organization after the last advisory, with the formation of a ragged central convective feature and outer banding in the northeastern semicircle. In addition, data from the Colombian radar at San Andres showed a partial eyewall, and surface observations from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, included a pressure of 1001 mb outside of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, and the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate. The center of Nate is now inland over northeastern Nicaragua, and little change in strength is expected until the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and light shear should allow for at least steady strengthening. However, the guidance is producing mixed signals despite a favorable-looking environment. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model is showing high chances of rapid intensification, with better than a 50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening in the next 24 h and nearly a 50 percent chance of 65 kt of strengthening in 72 h. On the other side, the GFS and Canadian models show only modest development and keep the cyclone as a tropical storm until it reaches the northern Gulf coast. Given the environment, the intensity forecast leans towards the high end of the guidance envelope and calls for Nate to become a hurricane in about 48 h and reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane. The initial motion is 325/8. A combination of a large cyclonic gyre over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 72 h. While the guidance is in better agreement on the direction that Nate should move, there remains disagreement on the speed despite an overall trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast track is similar to the direction of the previous track, but shows a faster forward speed that has the center near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 36 h and near the northern Gulf Coast in about 72 h. After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its remnants are expected to recurve northeastward upon encountering the mid-latitude westerlies. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through Friday night. 2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. 3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing. However, it is too early to specify the exact timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.3N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 84.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 23.7N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 29.5N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 41.5N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-10-05 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) X(26) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 11(35) X(35) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 10(37) X(37) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 4(40) X(40) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 13(47) X(47) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 13(53) X(53) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 12(53) X(53) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 8(60) X(60) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 53(61) 4(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 3(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) X(29) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 10(52) X(52) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 4(49) X(49) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 8(37) X(37) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 7(41) X(41) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 5(28) X(28) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 5(31) X(31) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 48(51) 8(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 9(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
Summary for Tropical Storm Nate (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-05 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF NATE NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Nate was located near 14.3, -83.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 5
2017-10-05 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 83.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 83.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today while the center is over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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