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Tropical Storm Florence Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2018-09-15 05:26:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 03:26:15 GMT

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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics

2018-09-15 04:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 02:44:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 03:22:12 GMT

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Tropical Storm Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2018-09-15 04:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 02:43:55 GMT

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 63

2018-09-15 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 573 WTNT41 KNHC 150242 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Although we lost data from the Wilmington, North Carolina, WSR-88D radar several hours ago, the radars from Raleigh and Columbia have clearly shown Florence's center has moved into extreme eastern South Carolina. Reflectivities around the eye have been decreasing, but there are still some strong spiral bands moving from southeast to northwest across portions of southeastern North Carolina. Maximum Doppler velocities are 65-70 kt from 5000-7000 feet, and on this basis Florence's maximum surface winds are estimated to be 55 kt. Radar fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-southwestward and has an initial motion of 255/4 kt. A mid-level high centered near Iowa and Missouri is expected to slide eastward to the north of Florence over the next 48 hours, which should cause the storm to maintain a slow motion and gradually turn toward the west and northwest over the Carolinas. For this period, the new official forecast track has been shifted a bit southward to follow an overall trend in the model guidance, but this isn't surprising given what some of the models were showing last night. After 48 hours, Florence is expected to get picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, accelerating north and northeastward to the western Atlantic by day 5. The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and just a little south of the previous forecast beyond 72 hours. Florence's winds should continue to slowly decay as the center ambles farther inland, but enough of the circulation should remain over water to allow the cyclone to remain as a tropical storm for the next 24 hours or so. This thinking follows the global model fields of the GFS and ECMWF models. After 24 hours, most of Florence's circulation should be inland, allowing the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression and eventually degenerate into a remnant low over the Ohio Valley by day 3. The remnant low is then likely to become an extratropical low by day 4, and it forecast to begin producing gale-force winds well east of New England to the south of Atlantic Canada. Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside tonight and Saturday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence will continue to be extremely heavy rainfall. More than a foot of rain has already fallen across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland through the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through tonight, and also along the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels. Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast coast of South Carolina coast tonight. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into southwest Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina through Saturday. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 33.8N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/1200Z 33.7N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 35.9N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 39.3N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 41.0N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0000Z 43.5N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 63

2018-09-15 04:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 004 FONT11 KNHC 150241 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 63 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 7 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 5 X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLOTTE NC 34 6 7(13) 11(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 50 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FLORENCE SC 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 23 24(47) 9(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) COLUMBIA SC 50 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 48 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MYRTLE BEACH 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 16 8(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ATLANTA GA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 8(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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