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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 64

2018-09-15 10:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 214 WTNT31 KNHC 150849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...FLORENCE SLOWLY WEAKENING JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BUT CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and a turn toward the west and northwest is expected today and Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast South Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm totals between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24 inches as of midnight Saturday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 64

2018-09-15 10:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 305 WTNT21 KNHC 150848 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.6N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 81.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 43.5N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-15 07:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Florence was located near 33.7, -79.3 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 63A

2018-09-15 07:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 615 WTNT31 KNHC 150540 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 63A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...FLORENCE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 79.3W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. Florence is forecast to turn westward and then northward through the Carolinas and the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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