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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 62
2018-09-14 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 985 WTNT31 KNHC 142039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and north of Salvo, North Carolina, including Albemarle Sound. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Cape Hatteras, including Albemarle Sound. The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina this evening, and across extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and gust to to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at several locations across southeastern North Carolina. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 62
2018-09-14 22:39:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 975 FONT11 KNHC 142039 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 10 3(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 9 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 7 9(16) 6(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 70 16(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) FLORENCE SC 50 23 14(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) FLORENCE SC 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 15 26(41) 6(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) COLUMBIA SC 50 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 64 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 47 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GEORGETOWN SC 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 34 14(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CHARLESTON SC 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 7 8(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ATLANTA GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 7(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 62
2018-09-14 22:39:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 311 WTNT21 KNHC 142038 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH OF SALVO NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SALVO NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.9N 80.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.4N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.5N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.5N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 41.5N 76.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 44.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-14 21:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 the center of Florence was located near 34.0, -78.6 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-14 20:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... As of 3:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 the center of Florence was located near 34.0, -78.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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