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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-11-10 09:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100855 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 75.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 75.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.0N 73.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.9N 68.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.6N 60.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 39.2N 54.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.0N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...350NE 200SE 200SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 46.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 53.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 75.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KATE Graphics
2015-11-10 04:07:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2015 02:39:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2015 03:03:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-11-10 03:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100236 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Kate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening. The center is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature with prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle. Earlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had strengthened to about 45 kt. Since the plane departed the storm, the satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the intensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm water for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional strengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a hurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong and the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Kate is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system over the north Atlantic by day 3. Kate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the east coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies. The updated track is similar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.2N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 29.5N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 35.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 38.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-11-10 03:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 100236 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-11-10 03:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100235 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 76.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 76.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.5N 75.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.0N 58.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 76.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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