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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-11-09 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092032 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Kate remains a compact tropical storm, consisting of a small central dense overcast and fragmented bands mainly to the north and east of the center. Earlier radar images from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that a partial convective inner core was forming. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory, based on the earlier reconnaissance data, but the system could be a little stronger. The NOAA hurricane hunters will be investigating Kate shortly, and will provide a better assessment of its intensity. The tropical storm is embedded in a low wind shear environment and over warm waters. These favorable conditions should allow the storm to strengthen during the next day or so. After that time, an increase in shear and cooler waters along the expected track should cause the strengthening trend to end. Kate is expected to be absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. The new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and remains on the low end of the model guidance envelope. Kate continues to move northwestward near the eastern edge of the Bahamas. The main steering features consist of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. A northward turn is expected tonight when the storm reaches the western periphery of the ridge, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday when the cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 27.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 30.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 33.6N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 36.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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Tropical Storm KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2015-11-09 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 092032 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

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Tropical Storm KATE Public Advisory Number 4

2015-11-09 21:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 ...KATE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 76.1W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 76.1 West. Kate is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kate is forecast to pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. RAINFALL: Kate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Kate are affecting the eastward-facing beaches in the northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Advisory Number 4

2015-11-09 21:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 76.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 76.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 76.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.4N 74.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.6N 69.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.8N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 76.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

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