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Tropical Storm KATE Public Advisory Number 3A
2015-11-09 18:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091749 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 100 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 ...KATE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 75.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF ELEUTHERA ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 75.7 West. Kate is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kate is forecast to move away from the central Bahamas this afternoon, and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas by late afternoon and tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) north of the center. A ship located just east of Kate's center recently reported sustained winds of at least 45 mph (75 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions will be diminishing over the central Bahamas later this afternoon. RAINFALL: Kate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Kate are affecting the eastward-facing beaches in the central and northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Tropical Storm KATE Graphics
2015-11-09 16:07:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2015 14:40:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-11-09 15:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091438 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Kate has strengthened a little. The advisory intensity of 40 kt is based on peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt, and SFMR observations of 40-42 kt. Kate is a very small tropical cyclone, with its associated central dense overcast extending no more than about 40 n mi from the center. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Kate is moving northwestward at about 13 kt, steered between a subtropical high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A northward turn is forecast to occur tonight when the storm is near the northwestern Bahamas. After that time, an acceleration to the northeast is expected when the cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official NHC track forecast is nudged to the right of the previous one at the 36- and 48-h forecast times, to come into better agreement with the consensus aids. Kate is likely to strengthen some more during the next day or so while it remains in a low- to moderate-shear environment and over warm water. The official intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is near the low end of the guidance envelope. All of the models show Kate becoming absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.5N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 26.1N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 31.6N 72.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 34.4N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Tropical Storm KATE Public Advisory Number 3
2015-11-09 15:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 ...KATE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 75.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF CAT ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. Kate is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kate is forecast to pass near or over portions of the central Bahamas during the next few hours and near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the central Bahamas for the next few hours and will spread over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon. RAINFALL: Kate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Bahamas through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Tropical Storm KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-11-09 15:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 091438 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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