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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2021-08-28 16:50:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 281450 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 4( 7) 15(22) 12(34) 8(42) 2(44) X(44) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 6( 9) 18(27) 14(41) 8(49) 1(50) X(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 18(26) 3(29) 1(30) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 3(20) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 7(23) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 3(21) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 19(27) 3(30) 1(31) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CULIACAN 34 1 4( 5) 18(23) 15(38) 5(43) X(43) 1(44) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 63 35(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ISLAS MARIAS 50 3 78(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 43(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MAZATLAN 34 6 59(65) 21(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MAZATLAN 50 X 11(11) 28(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MAZATLAN 64 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 58 34(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAN BLAS 50 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAN BLAS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 23 22(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) P VALLARTA 64 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)

2021-08-28 16:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Nora was located near 18.4, -105.4 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 12

2021-08-28 16:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 105.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch northward from Mazatlan to Topolobampo and has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward from Mazatlan to Altata. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch south of Manzanillo and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico * North of San Blas to Altata Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close to or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico. A motion toward the north-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Sunday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Nora's center will approach the mouth of the Gulf of California on Sunday and move over southern portions of the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight if Nora's center does not make landfall. Some gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday, but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area this evening through Sunday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and the central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-08-28 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281449 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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