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Tropical Storm NORA Public Advisory Number 5
2015-10-10 16:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 101438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 ...NORA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 137.2W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 137.2 West. Nora is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west-northwest are expected by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nora could become a hurricane by Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm NORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-10-10 16:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 101438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) X(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 22(38) 7(45) 1(46) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-10-10 16:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 101437 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 137.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 137.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 136.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.9N 139.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 12.1N 140.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 12.3N 142.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.6N 143.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.6N 145.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 15.9N 145.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 144.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 137.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm NORA Graphics
2015-10-10 11:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2015 08:45:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-10-10 10:43:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100843 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Nora has changed little in organization during the past several hours. The low-level center continues to be near the southeastern edge of the convection, and the strongest convection is currently in outer bands well northwest of the center. This is likely due to the effects of light southeasterly vertical wind shear. In addition, recent ASCAT data suggests the circulation is elongated north to south. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the ASCAT data also shows winds near 35 kt. Based on this, the advisory intensity remains 35 kt. Nora is now moving 285/14, with the cyclone continuing to be steered by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to weaken during the next 36 hours, with Nora moving generally westward with a decrease in forward speed. After that time, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northward and probably recurve as a deep-layer trough over the north Pacific breaks the subtropical ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the first 36 hours, but subsequently there is an increased spread on where and how fast Nora will recurve. The ECMWF shows a weaker Nora moving farther west and eventually turning northward along 149W by 120 hours. The UKMET shows a stronger Nora making an earlier recurvature with the storm near 19N 138W by 120 hours. The GFS lies between these models and is near the center of the guidance envelope. The new track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast for the first 48 hours, and then it is a little west of the previous forecast after that time. The new track is near the center of the guidance envelope and lies a little west of the GFS after 72 hours. Nora is expected to remain in an environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 2-3 days, which should allow strengthening. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter unfavorable conditions of strong southwesterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures. Based on this, the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling to Nora to peak as a hurricane in about 72 hours and subsequently weaken to a tropical storm by 120 hours. The new forecast is in best agreement with the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 11.6N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 11.9N 138.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 12.1N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 12.4N 142.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 12.7N 143.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 13.5N 145.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 18.5N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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