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Summary for Tropical Storm NORA (EP3/EP182015)

2015-10-10 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 the center of NORA was located near 11.6, -136.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm NORA Public Advisory Number 4

2015-10-10 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100843 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 ...NORA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 136.5W ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 136.5 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nora could become a hurricane by Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm NORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2015-10-10 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100843 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 9(19) 5(24) X(24) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 24(41) 12(53) 2(55) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 1(21) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Advisory Number 4

2015-10-10 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100842 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 136.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 136.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.9N 138.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 12.1N 140.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 12.4N 142.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.7N 143.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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