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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-10-10 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100234 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 Deep convection has increased a little since the last advisory, with the center located on the southeastern edge of the convective mass due to light/moderate southeasterly shear over the cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, marking the formation of Tropical Storm Nora, the 14th tropical storm of the eastern North Pacific season. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued steady strengthening for the next 72 hours, with the cyclone moving over SSTs at or above 29C during that period and light shear. By days 4 and 5 the SHIPS model and global model fields show the shear increasing, which should result in weakening. The new NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and is close to or a little above the SHIPS model through the period. The initial motion estimate is 275/14, as Nora is being steered quickly westward by a subtropical ridge to the north. A gradual decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next 36 hours as the ridge slowly weakens, and Nora should then turn west- northwestward as a weakness develops around 145W. Nora is then forecast to recurve between a deep-layer trough over the north- central Pacific and a strengthening ridge to the southeast by the end of the period. The track model guidance is in overall good agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through the period. The new official forecast is a little north of the previous one through 48 hours, and then is a little to the left, showing a more gradual recurvature following the latest trend in the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 11.3N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 11.6N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 11.8N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 11.9N 141.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 12.3N 143.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 18.5N 142.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm NORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-10-10 04:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 13(23) 8(31) X(31) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 25(35) 14(49) 4(53) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm NORA (EP3/EP182015)
2015-10-10 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FOURTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 the center of NORA was located near 11.3, -135.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm NORA Public Advisory Number 3
2015-10-10 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FOURTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 135.1W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 135.1 West. Nora is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning with a gradual reduction in forward speed. A turn toward the west-northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is expected by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nora is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-10-10 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 135.1W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 135.1W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 134.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.6N 137.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.8N 139.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.9N 141.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 12.3N 143.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 135.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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