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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-12 10:39:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021
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Tropical Depression Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-12 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120838 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Kevin Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Kevin is barely a tropical cyclone, as its exposed low-level center has been displaced over 100 n mi northeast of a few small bursts of convection for most of the night. In fact, the last semblance of organized convection with this sheared cyclone ended around 11/2100 UTC. If Kevin is unable to generate any organized convection soon, the system could be declared a post-tropical remnant low later this morning. Overnight ASCAT-A/B passes only showed 25 to 30-kt winds, primarily in the eastern semicircle of Kevin. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, which makes Kevin a tropical depression. Based on recent scatterometer fixes, it appears the broad center of Kevin is moving slightly more west-northwestward than before, or 295/10 kt. A general west-northwest to northwest motion should continue through dissipation as the system moves along the southwestern side of a deep-layer ridge. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly southward from the previous one based on the initial motion adjustment. The cyclone is already north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment during the next couple of days. Thus, the development of new, organized convection near Kevin's center seems very unlikely. The official NHC forecast now shows Kevin degenerating to a remnant low later today, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low should gradually spin down over the next couple of days before dissipating this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.3N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-08-12 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 119.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 119.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-12 10:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 763 WTNT41 KNHC 120835 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is stretched out and seems to resemble a trough at the surface. The system is now emerging back over water and is located between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Most of the associated showers and thunderstorms are located to the east of the estimated center, with heavy rains continuing over portions of Hispaniola. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but there is limited data to confirm this. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data from both planes will be helpful in estimating Fred's strength and structure. Fred appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A subtropical ridge currently situated to the north of Fred over the western Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward for the next 36 to 48 hours. This motion should take the storm just north of or across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas during that time period. By the weekend, the models suggest that Fred will be rounding the western periphery of the ridge, which will likely a cause a slow down and a gradual turn to the northwest and then the north across portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC track forecast remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, near the typically more skillful global models and consensus aids. Fred is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the next day or so, and those unfavorable winds combined with some land interaction with Cuba should prevent the system from strengthening much, if at all, during that time period. The shear could lessen on Friday and since SSTs are very warm and there is abundant environmental moisture, some strengthening seems likely when Fred is approaching the Florida Keys and south Florida Friday night and Saturday. After that time, the intensity forecast becomes more complicated by how much land interaction there will be with Florida. Since the official forecast shows a track over the eastern Gulf, additional strengthening is predicted before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida Big Bend region or Florida panhandle late in the weekend or early next week. However, that part of the intensity forecast, since it will be very track dependent, is more uncertain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Continued heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning, and in portions of Cuba later today. 3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. These conditions are expected to spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.2N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-12 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 73.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 73.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 73.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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