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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-14 04:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 239 WTNT41 KNHC 140251 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Interaction with land and southwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Fred this evening. It is very difficult to determine in infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations from Cuba if a closed circulation still exists, however the system is maintained as a tropical depression for now. Scatterometer data, which should arrive very soon, and reconnaissance aircraft observations on Saturday morning should provide additional information on the system's intensity and structure. The system still appears to be moving moving westward or 280/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a subtropical ridge extending over the western Atlantic, and Fred should turn west-northwestward overnight, and then northwestward on Saturday. The track guidance has again shifted westward, but the shift is not as large as was noted on the previous cycle. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left, closer to the consensus aids, but it still remains to the east of those models. Some additional westward adjustments in subsequent forecasts may be required. As mentioned above, land interaction and southwesterly vertical will limit any attempt of re-organization overnight, however the system is expected to move off the northern coast of Cuba Saturday morning and the global model guidance suggests that a center re-formation could occur over the western portion of the Straits of Florida. The center re-formation shown by the guidance appears to be aided by an area of upper-level diffluent flow to the southeast of an upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although only a little strengthening is indicated in the official forecast through 36 hours, the environment could become a little more conducive on Sunday, and the NHC wind speed forecast again calls for gradual strengthening while Fred moves northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The updated intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the statistical guidance and the HCCA model. The intensity forecast continues to be of lower-than-normal confidence given the current disorganized structure of the system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tonight through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 22.7N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-14 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 941 WTNT21 KNHC 140249 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 80.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-08-14 04:49:10| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 02:49:10 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-14 04:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 315 WTNT22 KNHC 140248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.2W...INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.9N 68.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.6N 70.4W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.7N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 53.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-14 04:45:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021
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