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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-12 04:50:39| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-12 04:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120243 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-08-11 22:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112054 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that Kevin continues to have a large circulation, but that the deep convection is well-removed from the tropical storm's center. A blend of the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB suggest that the system remains with an intensity of 40 kt, which is also supported by 1723Z SATCON estimate of 38 kt. Kevin's short-term movement has been a bit more westward, perhaps due to pulling by the remaining deep convection restricted to its southwestern quadrant. The longer-term initial motion is estimated as 290 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical storm is primarily being steered along the southwestern periphery of a deep tropospheric ridge. However, as the deep convection ceases completely in a day or two, the system will increasingly be steered by the lower tropospheric flow. A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated until dissipation. The official track forecast is based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), which is midway between the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions but substantially faster than the mesoscale hurricane model output. This new forecast is slightly westward of the previous advisory, due to the somewhat more westward position at the initial time. The tropical storm has already moved across the 26C SST isotherm and is moving toward even cooler water, drier air, and a more stable atmosphere. Additionally, Kevin is being affected by moderate NE tropospheric vertical wind shear. The large system should gradually weaken under these increasingly hostile conditions and it's likely that Kevin will become a remnant low by late Thursday. The official intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN statistical scheme and is nearly the same as the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 21.1N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 18

2021-08-11 22:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 112050 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 210SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-08-11 22:42:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 20:42:50 GMT

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