Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-08-13 16:44:04| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 14:44:04 GMT

Tags: information linda forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-13 16:38:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

Tags: number linda advisory forecast

 
 

Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-08-13 10:44:42| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 08:44:42 GMT

Tags: information linda forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-08-13 10:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130843 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Fred continues to produce heavy rains across eastern Cuba and portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning. However, despite the areas of heavy rain, the system remains poorly organized. Most of the deep convection is located to the east of the center and there is little evidence of banding features. The last pass by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters several hours ago and earlier ASCAT-A data indicated that maximum winds were around 30 kt. Since the storm has changed little in appearance since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data both planes collect will be helpful in assessing Fred's intensity and structure. Fred continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should persist for about another day as the storm continues to move in the flow on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a turn to the northwest and then the north is predicted as Fred moves around the western side of the ridge. Based on this expected motion, the storm should track just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight and near or across the Florida Keys on Saturday. After that time, there is more spread in the models due to the uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred makes the northwest and north turns. The range in the model solutions this cycle span from over the Florida peninsula to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Since the typically best-performing models ended up almost on top of the previous prediction, very little change to the track was required. The system is still battling about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, which is part of the reason why the convective pattern is disheveled. The shear is only expected to lessen slightly during the next couple of days, but since the environmental moisture is abundant and SSTs are very warm, gradual strengthening seems likely as Fred moves across the Florida Keys and then near or offshore of the west coast of Florida this weekend. The shear is expected to increase again before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida panhandle in a few days, and that will likely prevent additional intensification. Steady weakening is expected after the storm moves inland. The intensity guidance is in very good agreement, and this forecast lies near the high end of the models. It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be. KEY MESSAGES: 1. From today into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.0N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 22.6N 78.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 23.6N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 24.8N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 28.1N 83.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion fred tropical

 

Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-08-13 10:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 981 WTNT21 KNHC 130842 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.7W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.7W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.6N 78.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.6N 80.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.8N 81.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N 82.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.1N 83.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.6N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 32.5N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.5N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 76.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory fred tropical

 

Sites : [143] [144] [145] [146] [147] [148] [149] [150] [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] [162] next »